The Bushes and Republican Elite will Decide the 2016 Presidential Election


The electorate of the United States is so closely divided and the two major candidates so objectionable to the other camp, that the 2016 Presidential election is bound to be close. The number of voters who can be swayed, despite the billions to be spent on their persuasion, is probably not enough to decide the outcome of the election.

What may well defeat Trump is the elite of his party, particularly the Bushes.

Many Republican elected, economic, foreign affairs, and military leaders believe Hillary Clinton more closely adheres to their worldview on trade and security than does Donald Trump.

While the Republican elite might not vote for Hillary, they may well not vote for Trump.

To persuade reluctant Republicans to vote for Trump the U.S. Senate refused to consider the appointment of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court and Ted Cruz was allowed to speak at the convention to implore Republicans not to stay home.

That Trump recognizes how implacable the Republican leadership who did not attend the convention is evidenced by his making no overtures in their direction as he did to religious groups in his convention speech.

The often referenced Trump as strongman is bolstered by his elimination of all who oppose him. Trump has not and will not eliminate the opposition of the Bush clan.

The Bush-Trump war will be one of the most consequential battles of the 2016 Presidential campaign. The Bush grievances against Trump extend not only from their contrary worldviews of traditional Republican positions, but to a personal vendetta from the trashing of Jeb, Trump’s easy dispatch of the $130 million dollars Bushes supporter put up in the primary to support Jeb, and most personally egregious–the mocking of matriarch Barbara Bush.

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The Bush clan may act “low energy” but they are vicious close-in fighters.

I predict that the Bushes and Republican elite will peel away enough Republican support from Trump to defeat him — not to bury him in the landslide some long for— but by enough so that their worldview will be preserved, and future generations of Bushes will play a major role in the reconstruction of the GOP

The brilliance and foresight of the Clinton’s political instincts are evidenced by their cultivation of the Bushes as friends.

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Donald Trump too plays a long game. Even if he fails, one or more of his  attractive children who are accumulating experience and connections at the center of his campaign, will someday be a much stronger and ultimately successful candidate for President. I’d say Ivanka is the morning line favorite but the younger Eric had a more polished and politically impressive speech, and then there is Donald, Jr., who has primogeniture rights.

We should fully expect to see these political clans battling into the future with the savagery and shifting alliances of the War of the Roses.



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